Buongiorno ragazzi!

Look, there’s no easy way to say this. I am currently writing this letter from the rooftop pool bar at the JW Marriott private resort island in the Venice lagoon. I’ve been put up here for my last two nights as part of a little thing I’m working on, and while my tiny San Marco apartment with its sloped ceilings was perfectly charming, I am a small bit thrilled (okay, a big bit) to be suddenly in the lap of secluded luxury. The petty stresses of a film festival seem a million miles away, even though I’ve still got movies to see. 

All that festival business also seems faraway because I was kept from it all day on Sunday. Every year, the city of Venice holds a big regatta in the lagoon, which means that water bus service is suspended basically all afternoon. So I decided to stay away from the Lido and get some writing done rather than being marooned on an island where there’s not a ton to do, eat, or even sit down. 

Which meant, of course, that I missed the movie most people here seem to be raving about the most, Lee Chang-dong’s Possible Love, a class drama that had everyone who saw it pretty effusive. This is a typical me thing: I think I am doing some sensible self care and instead I totally whiff it on something major. I felt like a real loser last night, kicking myself for not just preparing for a day camped out with my laptop on the festival grounds while all the rowers did their thing.

But oh well! We move on. When last we spoke, I had just seen the documentary Oasis: Don’t Look Back in Anger, which to my great surprise is maybe my favorite thing I’ve seen here. I went in dragging my feet—a documentary? About a rock band??—but left the theater something of a teary mess. Maybe the title song, and “Champagne Supernova,” and “Wonderwall” are my favorite songs ever? Or, at least, the film, about the band’s massive reunion tour in 2025, makes those tunes (and others) feel really special. The long-feuding brothers Noel and Liam Gallagher also come across pretty well: they’ve reconciled, they’ve gained the wisdom of maturity, they’ve got lively senses of humor. Yes, the movie avoids politics and the darker aspects of the brothers’ past, so it’s a bit of a white-wash. But in the vacuum of the film, everything Oasis seems pretty great. I filed an effusive review for The Hollywood Reporter, if you’d like to read more about my most surprising film of the festival.

Once I was done writing that, I turned my attention to news from Telluride, Colorado, where a bunch of other impossibly lucky people are seeing new movies. (Or, at least they were; the weekend festival ends today.) I was most curious to see what people thought of Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, the movie for which Julianne Moore has been tipped as a heavy best actress favorite. Word from the ground there is that she is indeed terrific, but that maybe the rest of the movie is a little . . . off? That’s at least what some friends told me, one describing the film as “a little unhinged for its own good,” another saying, “you would think Jesse Eisenberg has never met a human being.” As someone who was not a big fan of A Real Pain, that kinda tracks for me. (Though, I did like his first feature, When You Finish Saving the World, which also starred Moore.) But I am still very eager to see the movie, because who doesn’t love Julianne Moore? And I’m really ready for the best actress race to snap into focus.

I’ve touched upon the dearth of best actress contenders in these pages a little already, but maybe it’s worth digging into a bit more. If we’re assuming—as most seem to be—that Moore is the front runner right now, who will be trying to unseat her over the next six months? 

The obvious, although once improbable answer, is Inde Navarrette, from the blockbuster horror-thriller Obsession. Navarrette was essentially an unknown before Obsession hit big, and now she’s got a fierce online fandom campaigning for her. The knocks against her are that she came out of nowhere and that she’s in a horror movie. But how famous was Mikey Madison before Anora? And Amy Madigan did just win an Oscar for a popular horror movie, something that didn’t seem all that possible when Weapons was first released. (Did her early New York Film Critics Circle win help legitimize her campaign? Maybe!) Some might argue that Madigan’s supporting win indicates that Navarrette should run in that category, but that would be a pretty egregious kind of fraud. 

At this point, I think Navarrette is in—especially if the Academy has any interest in seeming with-it and relevant. (Which, to be honest, doesn’t always seem like a top priority.) Past her, though, things get a lot murkier. Given the landscape as it is, my hunch is that Universal will decide to run Anne Hathaway in lead for best picture frontrunner The Odyssey, leaving Samantha Morton on her own in supporting. If the studio also launches a strong campaign for John Leguizamo in supporting actor, I see no reason why The Odyssey can’t get four acting nominations. (I’m assuming Matt Damon is a given at this point.) Yes, Hathaway’s part is right on the border of lead and supporting, but I’m much happier to see a performance rounded up than down. 

Speaking of movies that could get acting nods in multiple categories, If I were an awards strategist at A24 I’d go guns blazing on trying to get Olivia Wilde into best actress for The Invite, which I think has always had a strong supporting contender in Penélope Cruz. (Who will be competing against herself in the upcoming La Bola Negra.) Wilde is terrific in the movie, and has extra oomph behind her because she, y’know, directed it. And sure, they can throw Edward Norton and Seth Rogen in the mix too. They all deserve it! 

Another potential candidate about whom I’m really intrigued is Rosalind Eleazar, the Slow Horses actor who is in the high-profile Toronto premiere Misty Green. The fact that the film—about a Hollywood actress struggling to keep hold of her career—is written and directed by Chris Rock gives me pause. He doesn’t tend to make good movies, and the dialogue in the movie’s trailer is . . . not great. But I have heard from authorities I trust that Eleazar is a wonder in the role, giving a full-bodied performance that ought to knock people’s socks off when it premieres in Ontario this Saturday night. Having both Navarrette and Eleazar in the final five would be pretty exciting; I love it when people who weren’t previously very famous find themselves in that rarefied air overnight. (Especially when they don’t have tons of awful tweets to be dug up during the campaign . . . Though, I guess some people are already trying to pillory Navarrette because she’s a Johnny Depp fan?) 

If that’s a potential four, then who the hell completes the list? That is really anyone’s guess. Some possibilities are Carrie Coon in the Telluride cult drama The Liberation (also playing at Toronto), Renate Reinsve for the Cannes Palme d’or winner Fjord, or Berlin best actress winner Sandra Hüller for Rose. But, there are glaring negatives to all of those. Coon’s film might have some political problems, Reinsve’s work in Fjord is really quiet, and Rose is a weird black and white Austrian movie about gender identity. Of those three, Hüller might have the most momentum behind her: she’s also in likely best picture contender Project Hail Mary and in the upcoming Digger, with Tom Cruise. Plus, of course, she’s really good in Rose, and its subject matter is quite pertinent. 

Looking at what’s ahead on the calendar, I suppose we could factor in Mikey Madison for The Social Reckoning and Daisy Edgar-Jones for Sense and Sensibility. (The latter skipping all festivals makes me nervous, though.) Maybe Jenna Ortega for Klara and the Sun, too, but the trailer for that Taika Waititi-directed movie is rough. Helen Mirren could get an elder-stateswoman nod for A Talent for Murder, in which she plays Patricia Highsmith. We’ll see how that one goes in Toronto this weekend. 

Speaking of Toronto, I think a major best actress contender could be confirmed on opening night. In CODA director Sian Heder’s new movie, Being Heumann, British actress Ruth Madeley stars as tireless disability rights advocate Judith Heumann, whom people might know from the stirring Netflix documentary Crip Camp. The film industry has always been bad about putting disabled actors in movies, and a nomination for Madeley would at least be some kind of gesture toward being more inclusive in the future. Heder has proven that she can make Oscar-approved films about disability, so we should all probably be indexing Being Heumann, and Madeley, a lot higher than they currently are. I’ll be reviewing that movie from TIFF this week, so stay tuned. 

Okay, that’s it for today. Oh, if you want to read another review of mine, here’s a write-up of Woman Unknown, an evocative drama set in post-WWII Denmark. I don’t think that film’s star, Mathilde Arcel, will be an Oscar player, but the movie is really strong and worth putting on your watch list for whenever it comes out. 

If you have any burning questions about the Oscar race now that festival news is flying fast and furious, please let me know! [email protected]. I’d love to do a mailbag letter this fall—about awards and, really, anything else. Send questions my way, please!

Ciao for now. I’m gonna go swim in the pool, have another spritz, and toast my miraculous fortune—made entirely possible by readers like you. Thanks for sticking with me. It really does mean the world.