Now that the Oscar shortlists (for categories like Best Original Song, Best International Feature, and for the first time Best Casting) have been revealed, we’ve gotten our first real glimpse at what at least a few members of the Academy are favoring this year. Yeah, yeah, critics groups have given out prizes and the Golden Globes have announced their nominees, but those aren’t really indicators of what will happen at the big show—they’re entirely different voting bodies and can really only help get a trend in motion. And they don’t always do that, even—don’t forget the Marianne Jean-Baptiste snub just last year. But yes, now that we have some concrete information, it’s time to do our first newsletter check-in on the state of the race.

Because this newsletter is a partnership between me, the authoritative god of this endeavor, and you the readers, I reached out to you to take your temperature. There was a little question at the end of the automated welcome letter you received when you subscribed, asking you what you think is going to win best picture. I’m happy to say, the responses came flooding in. Before I get to my own vague analysis, let’s see where all of you fell. You have spoken, and now you shall be heard.