Every June, a really amazing thing happens: all of New York City’s gay people and gay allies gather together to celebrate the lives they’ve built for themselves in this most wondrous city. No, I’m not talking about the Pride parade, that godless bacchanal of TD Bank floats and dating app-branded beer koozies. I’m talking about the Tony awards, which will take place this coming Sunday, only on Crackle. Well, no, okay they are still on CBS for now, but those days are probably numbered. Should you and your friends (and your “roommate”) be planning to watch the show, you may be curious about who is going to win. I am curious too! So curious, in fact, that I’ve gone and done some predictions—though, only for a select few categories (best play, best musical, and the acting ones). I wish I could devote time to every category, but I don’t know shit about orchestrations so what would be the point?

The Balusters, David Lindsay-Abaire

Giant, Mark Rosenblatt

Liberation, Bess Wohl

Little Bear Ridge Road, Samuel D. Hunter

Given that she just won the Pulitzer, and her play was widely beloved by critics and audiences, it’s a safe bet that Wohl—a celebrated playwright who has nonetheless only had two shows on Broadway to date—will be victorious here. Though Liberation is a period piece about the feminist movement in 1970, it is still quite topical to today—for, well, obvious and dismaying reasons. One of those reasons is that it’s about people gathering together in grassroots fashion to do something about the sorry state of their country and society. I’d imagine that will register with enough voters. I could see Giant, which won the Olivier in London, being a potential spoiler, but that feels unlikely at this point. 

The Lost Boys

Schmigadoon!

Titaníque

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Though the Apple TV show it’s based on was not the biggest of hits, Schmigadoon! has found its rightful audience on Broadway, where audiences can feel contended with themselves for getting all the references and don’t have to deal with much heavy stuff. The same is true for smash-hit off-Broadway transfer Titaníque, but I think that show is just too much of a parody riff on one specific thing to feel holistically original enough to voters. Two Strangers is sweet and small, but its nomination was probably the win—though, it is the only truly original show here, which could (or should) count for something. The Lost Boys probably alienated a lot of voters because the vampires just don’t fuck each other enough during the show. So I think it’s Schmigadoon!, and now I’m having a hard time deciding which potential presenter I want to hear say “Schmigadoon” the most. Catherine Zeta-Jones? Harvey Fierstein? Oh, who am I kidding, I want it to be Alice Ripley, bellowing “Schmigadoooooon” so loud the roof of Radio City Music Hall blows off and crashes onto 6th Avenue. 

Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Becky Shaw, Gina Gionfriddo

Every Brilliant Thing, Duncan Macmillan with Jonny Donahoe

Fallen Angels

Oedipus, Robert Icke

It’s been a massive hit and has been glowingly reviewed, so I have a hard time seeing Death of a Salesman not winning here. Oedipus was compelling, but that was all the way last fall and didn’t grip the theatergoing world quite as tightly. The other three are smaller and less buzzy, so I think Arthur Miller will finally, finally get an award for his work. Can’t wait to hear his speech. 

Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Ragtime

Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show

The Ragtime revival is stellar, and received more acting nominations than its competitors, which could put it on top. But Jellicle Ball has been such a sensation since it first premiered downtown that I don’t think the Tonys will risk looking uncool by giving the prize to anything else. Yes, this year the cool thing to do is to vote for an Andrew Lloyd Webber musical.