Monday. What a concept! 

I hope you all had a lovely weekend. Did you go apple picking? I had an apple on Saturday and actually said out loud, “This tastes like fall!” And I must admit I did suddenly have a vision of going upstate in the next few weeks and yanking some apples off of trees and then bringing them home to . . . I dunno, let rot on the counter? But it was a fleeting notion, a bit of early autumn madness, and then it was gone. 

For the rest of the weekend, I mostly cooed at my parents’ new dog and caught up on back issues of The New Yorker. Not sat near them while I fiddled on my phone, like usual. I actually put my device in a different room (for a little while) and read several whole articles. Which was enlightening, if depressing. 

A darkly funny and entertaining story about the Saudi expensive and pathetic efforts to create a fine dining scene was immediately put in more wretched context by a thoroughly frightening piece about Jared Kushner’s flagrant corruption. An otherwise surprisingly poignant study of smokejumpers does, of course, eventually land on how the current administration is trying to undermine their work. And so on and so on. Still, it felt good to at least get through a couple of issues. Only 150 more on the pile to go!

I didn’t watch much of anything over the weekend, busy as I was immersing myself in the horrors pulsating out of Washington (or, really, Florida) like the purple slime in Ghostbusters 2, or, y’know, whispering sweet nothings to the puppy. (“Did you know that you’re a small dog?” I asked him repeatedly, receiving no reply.) Though I did watch the following trailer, for a movie that I think looks really fun. 

You might watch that and think to yourself, “Guy Ritchie? Really?” Yes, really! While he has made plenty of junk over the decades, Ritchie has been kind of reliable in recent years as a purveyor of agreeably sturdy B-grade entertainment. This Wife & Dog—a moody sort of whodunnit set in a more sophisticated clime than is typically his purview—seems a bit of a swing away from Ritchie’s usual brash mode, but I have confidence that, at the very least, Rosamund Pike can make it all worth our while. Plus, with Cosmo Jarvis and James Norton in there, I’m wondering if we might see even further exploration of Ritchie’s increasingly not-so-latent homoerotic bent. That’s become the most interesting thing about his work, frankly. But there is other interesting stuff, too.

There’s also this brand new trailer for the delayed but still on track to come out this year Netflix tentpole The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth, a sequel to Once Upon a Time . . . in Hollywood written by Quentin Tarantino but directed by David Fincher. 

Reports have suggested that the film was meant to world premiere at Venice, but that Fincher was still fiddling with the movie (and maybe asked for a last-minute score from Trent Reznor) and thus it wasn’t ready in time. But Netflix is insisting that, yes, the movie is on its way to us before 2026 creaks to a close. Some are excited, some are not excited because A) the movie star involved hasn’t got the best reputation and/or B) we maybe don’t need a sequel to OUATIH. 

A Fincher movie is typically an event, though, even if his last two Netflix films (Mank and The Killer) are mostly forgotten. So, this ought to be regarded as potentially significant, a movie that could shake up the awards race if all the right pieces fall into place. Brad Pitt has already has an Oscar for this role, but this time he’s firmly in the lead category. Does that mean we have to consider him a contender in an already very crowded field? Honestly, I have no fucking idea. I kind of doubt it, though, as this looks more like a comedy romp than anything else, and doesn’t come with the particular Tarantino stamp that lets Academy voters overlook such genre concerns. I’d really rather not have the Pitt of it all clouding the awards narrative this year, so I personally hope that’s not where this movie is headed. And Netflix has other players to focus on, anyway. Gay players.

The biggest awards news out of the weekend was that the Spanish Civil War epic La Bola Negra won the coveted Toronto International Film Festival People’s Choice Award, which is often viewed as a strong indicator that a movie will go on to snag a best picture nomination. (The only movie to not hit that double since 2012 was The Life of Chuck, which was frankly an embarrassment for the people of Toronto.) I had assumed that I Play Rocky (which placed second) or the crowd-pleasing The Debut (which didn’t place at all) would win. Or maybe Elsinore (which top the international prize) could snatch it. La Bola Negra, my favorite movie at Cannes this year, hadn’t really registered as an option until, I guess, last Tuesday night, when the movie screened and, according to eyewitnesses, the crowd went standing-ovation nuts for it. 

That’s a very encouraging sign for the film, which Netflix bought in France like an I ❤ Cannes magnet and hopes to take all the way to the Dolby stage. I had my worries about the movie post-Cannes, mostly because a few critics I respect really hated it so I started to wonder if maybe I’m just a dumb rube for loving it. But also because it’s a Spanish-language movie about gay guys and that’s not exactly been a recipe for Oscar glory in the past. (Pedro Almodóvar films notwithstanding.) Now that the earnest tenderhearts of Toronto have bestowed such glory upon it, though, I think La Bola Negra is right there in the frontrunner pack.

I also had my doubts about Elsinore, at least past its sure-thing status in best actor. The TIFF voters may have been mostly rewarding star Andrew Scott, but any win like this helps shore up the film’s overall bonafides. Focus will have to figure out a way to campaign the movie as a whole, likely by highlighting Stephen Beresford’s screenplay and Olivia Colman’s supporting work, and going after technicals like original score and cinematography. 

Okay, last week I promised a more comprehensive overview of where I think the Oscar race stands now, so I’m gonna go through the so-called major categories and give my predicted nominees as I see them at the moment, listed in order from most likely to iffiest. Mind you, this is all guessing, but that’s all it ever is, really. 

Picture

The Odyssey

Wild Horse Nine

The Debut

La Bola Negra

Project Hail Mary

Dune: Part Three

Elsinore

The Invite

Obsession

Possible Love

I have omitted The Social Reckoning because Sorkin’s last at-bat, Being the Ricardos, underperformed with the Academy, and this one’s last-minute reshoots (forcing it to skip all festivals) make me a little nervous. I’ve put Obsession pretty low here, but I think it’s becoming more of a serious contender with each passing day. I’d love to put Possible Love (which got second place in TIFF’s international category) higher, but let’s wait and see how well a three-hour Korean movie about class differences in that country plays throughout the season. It will likely get a huge boost from critics groups, Drive My Car style, which could solidify its position. 

For whatever reason, I’m feeling a little less sanguine about The Invite than I did just a week ago. I’m not quite sure why; it’s just a gut feeling. Maybe part of it is the thought that if Bola Negra proves a true 10-nomination juggernaut, as some have been boldly predicting since Cannes, Penélope Cruz could get swept up in that, thus diminishing her chances of being recognized for The Invite, which might make that movie suffer overall. But I’m still predicting it over, say, I Play Rocky. 

Actress

Julianne Moore, The Debut

Inde Navarrette, Obsession

Sandra Hüller, Rose

Olivia Wilde, The Invite

Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

This is the trickiest category of the majors, because the top two are leagues ahead of everyone else at this point. The other three are pure guesswork—plus some peer pressure. I don’t really think that Efira is much of a contender for Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s twee and tedious treatise on kindness, but lots of pundits think she is, so why argue with consensus? 

Hüller is there because she won best actress at Berlin, and she’s in two big American movies (Project Hail Mary and Digger) this year, helping to further boost her profile. Though it’s rare to see a (largely) comedic performance recognized in this category, Wilde gets points for directing her own movie, and benefits from the general thinness of the field. I also don’t see much else coming down the pike that could unseat her—or anyone else listed here. Renate Reinsve is still in the mix, sure, but Fjord did not go over well at all in Toronto. Misty Green probably needed to be louder at that festival to secure Rosalind Eleazar’s chances, as did Being Heumann for its star, Ruth Madeley. But all three are certainly remain in play. 

Actor

Andrew Scott, Elsinore

John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

Matt Damon, The Odyssey

Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Conspicuously not on this list are Robert Pattinson for Primetime, Anthony Ippolito for I Play Rocky, and Tom Cruise for Digger. Pattinson is certainly on the edge, but his movie might be too arty and moody to push him over the line. Ippolito is a relative no-name, and while celebrity impressions are a longtime favorite of the Academy, I Play Rocky feels like one of those movies that (if it gets anything) lands a random best picture nomination and maybe one other thing, screenplay or something, and that’s it. Digger seems less commercially viable with each passing trailer, and if the movie is not financially successful, I think that really hurts Cruise’s chances. 

I put Turturro on there instead of those three (and others), because he is very good in that charming throwback of a movie (which premiered to acclaim at Sundance) and will no doubt appeal to older voters, and to those who’ve been keeping track of such things and remember that John Turturro has never been nominated before. Boomer nostalgia is a heady thing—which could also help Malkovich. 

I’ve been thinking for weeks now that Scott has this thing sewn up already, but suddenly I’m getting the sense that Malkovich is a very formidable challenger, a sentimental favorite among lots of Academy-type people who appreciate what Scott is doing but don’t really feel it. A powerful old guy who’s done some shit but is now looking back at his life with a weary sort of resignation as he considers how much the world has changed? That is catnip for some voters, and that’s exactly what Malkovich is doing in that movie. The one significant hurdle might be that Malkovich isn’t exactly beloved in the industry, behavior-wise. (At least that’s what I’ve heard.)

Supporting Actress

Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

Samantha Morton, The Odyssey

Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra

Olivia Colman, Elsinore

Kate O’Flynn, Tender Loving Care

Speculation as to whether Hathaway will run in lead or supporting still runs rampant. The winds seem to be favoring supporting at the moment, so I’ve put her here. (If she goes lead, I think she’ll get in.) But that doesn’t exclude Morton, particularly because there are not a ton of other viable contenders. I was almost tempted to list Cruz twice, because that is allowed now, but instead banked on Focus doing a successful push for Colman, and for O’Flynn to ride the wave of Widow’s Bay enthusiasm (complete with an Emmy victory) to a sneaky nomination for her excellent turn in Mike Leigh’s bleary family dramedy. Yes, yes, the Academy brutally blanked Leigh’s last film, but TLC is a far easier sit (though still quite sad) than was Hard Truths. 

Supporting Actor

Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

Paul Giamatti, The Debut

John Leguizamo, The Odyssey

Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

John Goodman, Digger

That last guy is only on there because people who’ve already seen the movie have predicted him, so I’m choosing to trust them on that one. A supporting nomination will be much easier to secure than a lead nod for Cruise, and Goodman is in the same never-nominated club as Turturro. Rockwell and Giamatti are no-brainers, and while it seemed like a nice idea—almost a pipe dream—a month ago that Leguizamo would be named the first among equals of The Odyssey’s vast male ensemble, it’s now seeming like his campaign is taking on the unquantifiable, yet undeniable, sheen of inevitability. That might just be speculative mists of pundit puffery hardening into its solid state, but sometimes that’s all it takes.

I originally had Edward Norton for The Invite on here, but eventually had to admit to myself that people will probably like what Strong is doing in The Social Reckoning, even if they don’t love the rest of the movie. Remember when J.K. Simmons got nominated in this category for Being the Ricardos? I didn’t either until just now. 

Director

Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra

Nolan is a big ol’ duh. Probably McDonagh, too, at this point. I think there is enough flourish and evolved artistry in The Debut that Eisenberg gets in as a little mea culpa for A Real Pain being snubbed in best picture two years ago. (It didn’t belong in best picture, I don’t think—nor does The Debut, frankly—but many disagree with me.) 

Villeneuve was overlooked for the last two Dune films, to many fans’ outrage, so I think he’ll get a courtesy nod for his final journey to Wormington. And then there’s that fifth slot, which I am calling for Los Javis, because I’m feeling bullish on their movie right now. It would be nice if, y’know, a woman were in the mix, and to that end I don’t think Olivia Wilde is to be discounted at all. It’s entirely possible that she takes Villeneuve’s slot, or Los Javis’, or Eisenberg’s. 

All right, that’s it for now. Don’t hold me to any of this. It’s all make-‘em-up, as you know. And I no longer work for a magazine that has a reputation to uphold, so I was a little more willy-nilly in these predictions than usual. And right now? I’m feeling awfully grateful for that freedom. 

See you Wednesday!